KEYNUM.AI
Energy & infrastructure intelligence
Interpretation guide

Evidence, with boundaries.

The product is designed for layered transparency: a calm decision surface first, methods and classification detail on demand.

What the evidence supports

Defensible Direction 1 claims

  • Some anomaly scores rank later upside-tail event dates above the unconditional background rate.
  • Spread structure is currently strongest at the main h14 horizon.
  • GDELT narrative pressure is most useful at h7 and decays quickly.
  • Evidence strength differs materially by family and horizon.

What it does not support

Claims deliberately excluded

  • A fired rule does not prove that a crisis or geopolitical event will occur.
  • The anomaly does not cause the downstream tail event.
  • AUC-PR above base rate does not guarantee operational usefulness.
  • The current historical layer is not yet a fully live production warning service.